Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 21.516840 23.386841 25.406992 27.762310 30.446687 33.427164 37.009553
2025-10-26 18.389137 20.911573 23.825615 27.482609 32.009782 37.513611 44.844820
2025-11-02 16.271577 19.136491 22.618947 27.250640 33.388860 41.461033 53.276933
2025-11-09 14.801707 17.878495 21.774968 27.213699 34.857601 45.645767 62.916431
2025-11-16 13.624815 16.814096 20.990217 27.059583 36.033362 49.526288 73.028456
2025-11-23 12.679453 15.931752 20.312700 26.906611 37.105993 53.362809 84.083321
2025-11-30 11.884654 15.164416 19.691474 26.718066 38.037007 57.081963 96.036317
2025-12-07 11.264914 14.576961 19.252502 26.721765 39.231081 61.434624 110.720516
2025-12-14 10.694442 14.008180 18.778793 26.597204 40.160498 65.463530 126.289755
2025-12-21 10.441333 13.871960 18.925961 27.465309 42.929168 73.641759 155.694030
2025-12-28 9.947033 13.342142 18.422638 27.188975 43.550208 77.551839 176.008081
2026-01-04 9.557056 12.941459 18.085753 27.152948 44.609649 82.666788 203.142169
2026-01-11 9.239800 12.641304 17.900450 27.390198 46.309547 89.902270 243.776817
2026-01-18 8.850352 12.207421 17.468662 27.143183 46.990272 94.901890 281.263612
2026-01-25 8.499614 11.813907 17.075190 26.926267 47.705050 100.251238 326.656551
2026-02-01 8.211414 11.502638 16.796216 26.894380 48.823875 107.122855 389.485004
2026-02-08 7.925732 11.179376 16.473895 26.744643 49.649845 113.463414 460.879163
2026-02-15 7.661793 10.877300 16.167556 26.594948 50.453404 120.075574 548.997231
2026-02-22 7.411343 10.584641 15.858713 26.409832 51.143363 126.632925 655.409783
2026-03-01 7.207199 10.358296 15.652321 26.413585 52.313436 135.425519 815.161629
2026-03-08 6.997787 10.113165 15.397160 26.291140 53.139704 143.379123 1005.904754
2026-03-15 6.939287 10.118196 15.593268 27.144762 56.756312 164.516066 1559.118874
2026-03-22 6.730441 9.857646 15.285538 26.873075 57.189047 172.312926 1965.953017